And the Magic Number to Flip the House “Blue” is Now Four—Congratulations Special Election Winner Democrat Tom Suozzi! February 18, 2024
Does any reasonable person not know these facts already? GOPers do nothing but whine and complain. They blame President Biden and his fellow Democrats for just about everything. They are not interested in solving the key problems facing our nation. Exhibit A-- when they have the majority in the House, they waste their time voting in a “do-over” by the narrowest of margins to impeach Biden’s Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas because they don’t like Biden’s immigration policy (nytimes.com, cnn.com, 2/13/24). Impeachment, remember, is only reserved for “high crimes and misdemeanors,” not policy differences. This super-frivolous House impeachment resolution will probably be buried by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and never be taken up in a formal trial.
On February 13, 2024, the very same date that the GOP House impeached Secretary Mayorkas, Democrats nationwide were not in the least diverted by this ridiculous stunt. They were concentrating on giving money to and helping to get out the vote in a special election in the New York 3rd Congressional District (CD). This election had former Democratic Congressmember Tom Suozzi running against GOP nominee Mazi Pilip. These candidates were running to replace the ethically disgraced and expelled Cong. George Santos (R-Imposter). Santos had been charged by federal attorneys with at least 23 criminal counts of fraud and other charges. He had served for nearly a year in the House (nytimes.com, Fandos). Poll after poll and media outlet after media outlet stated that this race would be extremely close and would be won by a 1%-4% margin. Well, polls don’t vote, people do. In this contest the pollsters’ calculations were WAY off the mark. Suozzi clobbered Pilip. With 97% of the votes in, Suozzi had 53.9% of the votes to Pilip’s 46.1% (cnn.com). Political analysts were closely watching this race because they called it a political bellwether for the 2024 elections. If the GOP had kept this seat, conventional wisdom stated that Democrats would be in disarray and it would bode badly for their taking back the House in 2024, let alone Biden’s re-election. However, Democrats triumphed. Before this election, “Team Blue” needed only to flip 5 seats to take back the House. Now, the magic number is 4. Inept and rookie House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) may have a hard time cobbling together the votes he needs on key issues. With vacancies still left to fill in the House, Speaker Johnson can’t afford to lose more than two GOPers on partisan votes (nytimes.com, Fandos, 2/13/24). GOPers are presently fighting with each other over why Pilip lost. They are arrayed against each other in a “circular firing squad (cnn.com, 2/14/24).” And while everyone was looking at the Suozzi-Pilip race, Democrats also won on 2/13/24, a special election in swing district Bucks County, PA to keep control of the State House there (cnn.com).
Cong. Suozzi gave Democrats a template on how to take on GOP attacks against them on immigration, the hot-button issue the GOP is pushing to attack Biden and his fellow Democrats. This template can work in swing districts that are crucial to retaking the House. Instead of listening to consultants who told Suozzi that the immigration matter is a GOP issue he should ignore, Suozzi tackled this issue head on and turned it against “Team Red.” He correctly accused his rival Pilip of being against the latest immigration reform that a bipartisan group of GOPers and Democrats had put together in the Senate. Suozzi called for deporting illegal immigrants involved in committing crimes (nytimes.com). This immigration bill was torpedoed by the GOP after Demagogue Donald told them to kill it because it would leave him without a key campaign issue. Pilip followed the Trump line here although she “claimed” she was keeping Donald at arm’s length from her race. She called Donald a “great” candidate and said she would support whichever GOPer won the 2024 nomination, which sure looks like Demagogue Donald (ynetnews.com, 12/20/23, Edelson, D.). Suozzi called GOPer Pilip out for the usual “Team Red” tactic—complaining about an issue to attack Democrats on, but suggesting no solutions. Suozzi, instead, stated he wanted to work on a bipartisan immigration fix. Suozzi tied Pilip to the dysfunctional GOP controlled-House. Democrats also ran ads calling Pilip “Santos 2.0.” Pilip, an Ethiopian Jewish native, who originally emigrated to Israel before marrying an American she met there, claimed she had served in the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) as a paratrooper. Well, no women serve as paratroopers in the IDF. Hebrew, which is very gender specific, has no word for a female paratrooper (nytimes.com). Pilip just helped clean and polish the instruments used in that outfit and was a gunsmith in her unit (wiki). Let’s look at the NY 3rd Congressional District as well as Suozzi and Pilip.
Moderate Democratic Congressmember Tom Suozzi (61), will, once again, represent New York’s 3rd Congressional District, CD (See Fandos, nytimes.com, 2/15/24). He had previously served 3 terms in the 3rd (Cohen & Cook 2022). The NY 3rd is a district located in Eastern Queens and Long Island. The Empire State 3rd connects a mixture of very different NY City neighborhoods and suburbs. The 3rd includes Long Island’s North Shore, home to the formerly “Great Gatsby” territory of 19th and early 20th Century millionaires. The Oyster Bay home of President Theodore Roosevelt lies in the NY 3rd. The 3rd also includes little villages in Long Island clustered around railroad stations. Great Neck, Glen Cove, and Sands Point lie in the 3rd as well. Affluent Great Neck is heavily Jewish. About one-third of the 3rd’s votes are cast in Suffolk County, which is more conservative than the rest of the district. Close to 15% of the population lives at the 3rd’s western end in upscale neighborhoods of Queens near the Throgs Neck and Bronx-Whitestone bridges to the Bronx and points north, including Douglaston, Bellaire, and Beechhurst. This area is more affluent than other portions of Queens and is heavily Democratic. In the middle, politically and geographically, is northern Nassau County where half the 3rd’s population lives. The 3rd’s town of Jericho, which is one-third Asian, exceeds $173,000 per year in median household incomes. In the Queens part of the 3rd, there is a strong Chinese American population. Politically, the 3rd is competitive and has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of just D+2 (Cohen & Cook 2022 Political Almanac, Cook PVI 2023). Biden won here by 11 points 55%-44% in 2020, but now he only has a much lower popularity rating in the 3rd . The 3rd’s voters presently have Biden and Trump running neck and neck.
Glen Cove native Tom Suozzi received his BA degree from Boston College and a law degree from Fordham University. He is also a CPA. Politics runs in his family. Suozzi served as Mayor of Glen Cove from 1994-2001, a position that both his father and two other Suozzis had held. From 2002-2009, Suozzi served in the more powerful office of Nassau County executive, the first Democrat to hold that position in three decades, in this normally GOP stronghold. He led a state commission that proposed the first state wide cap on property taxes which was subsequently enacted. He worked as a senior adviser to an investment bank and at the powerhouse Shearman and Sterling law firm. When the incumbent Democratic Congressmember stepped down at the end of 2016, Suozzi won the primary and general election to succeed him (Cohen & Cook 2022). In the House, Suozzi fought for the rights of Uighar Muslims, persecuted by China. He became co-chair of the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus and helped prepare House rules to encourage more open debate. He called himself a “fiscal conservative” with progressive views on poverty and immigration. His CPA background helped him win a seat on the tax writing House Ways and Means Committee. In 2020, Mr. Imposter George Santos ran against Suozzi touting his fake Brazilian background, but Suozzi handily won with a 13-point margin (Cohen & Cook 2022).
In 2022, Suozzi left his 3rd CD seat to run for Gov. of NY. He lost the primary, finishing in third place. That year, George Santos, again touting his Brazilian as well as his Jewish “background” as a “true American story”(NOT) defeated his Democratic challenger by 8 percentage points (cnn.com, nytimes.com). Suozzi ran again in 2024 for his old NY 3rd seat.
The GOPers, especially those running the vaunted Long Island machine thought that Pilip (44) was a dream come true for them in reclaiming this district which had at least 20% Jewish voters (nytimes.com). Pilip had been elected as a Nassau County legislator for a four- year term when she upset her Democratic incumbent by 7 points (nytimes.com, 2/15/22). She focused on local issues as well as fighting anti-Semitism. Pilip, however, ran a very amateurish campaign against a political pro. She dodged appearing at many public gatherings where she could have, as LBJ would have said, “pressed the flesh.” Suozzi was everywhere in the NY 3rd and gathered “ y uu ge” crowds. National Democrats, realizing the importance of this race, outspent Pilip’s side and put at least $10 million in ads against her talking about her anti-choice position. Again, since the Supreme Court’s awful “Dobbs” decision that overturned “Roe v. Wade,” defending abortion rights for women has been a Democratic winner in “Red” as well as “Blue” and swingy areas. Pilip didn’t help herself when she wouldn’t answer in a debate on whether she would support banning semi-automatics like the AR-15. Apparently, Pilip thought that she was in a “Red” state when she ducked this gun-control issue, a no-brainer in suburban NY. And Jewish voters saw right through Pilip and were not fooled. Jewish Americans don’t vote only on what is “good for Israel” and always for one of their own. Italian-American Suozzi was just as vehement as Jewish-American Pilip in defending Israel’s legitimate fight against Hamas. He said he would strongly take on the very small leftist fringe anti-Israel “Squad” when he gets to Congress. Suozzi and fellow Democrats attacked Pilip for having the “nerve” to call him a “Squad” member. Suozzi aptly challenged Pilip for her lies and lack of transparency in the 3rd CD after this district had suffered under master-liar Santos and had been made a national laughing stock. Suozzi correctly called Pilip a rank amateur who had no business handling major issues in Congress. Would you want someone to remove your appendix who wasn’t a trained surgeon or represent you in a trial who wasn’t a lawyer? Well, politicians must also not be rank amateurs. Such amateurs can cause a lot of damage to their districts and the nation.
Yes, the GOPers can complain all they want about the sudden heavy snowstorm that may have depressed their Election Day turnout. However, they got roads in their areas cleaned. Both parties offered free rides to the polls. Fortunately, most Democrats voted early and built up a pre-Election Day advantage in this race. Democrats, unlike Trump followers, believe in voting early, not just on Election Day. Democrats kept the Election Day returns very close(nytimes.com). Asian Americans also came out in force for Suozzi (dailykos.com).
What can we learn from Suozzi’s race in swingy territory? Democrats, again, must have strong turnout from their base and must push early voting. In addition, they must take attacks against them on issues like immigration and turn them as Suozzi did against their GOP opponents. We must never concede ANY major issue, no matter how allegedly favorable to the other side. Again, congratulations Cong. Tom Suozzi on a well-deserved victory!